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Tuesday, April 24 • 10:15am - 10:35am
Trumping The Election: An Econometric Analysis Of District Level Data And The 2016 Election

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Many view the 2016 U.S. Presidential election as an unconventional election cycle. The rise of Donald J. Trump from real estate mogul and reality television star, to President of the United States was unprecedented in modern politics. Though he did not win the popular vote, President Trump won nearly 80% of counties and the majority of congressional districts in the United States. This paper uses data derived from the U.S. Census Bureau, and various state election agencies to test, controlling for various socioeconomic variables, the effect of median income levels on how individual districts in a series of key swing states voted in this election. This paper uses a logit model to determine whether a district in these swing states voted republican or not. Research suggests that there is a small impact by income on voting outcome, though this can be complicated by a variety of other variables.

Tuesday April 24, 2018 10:15am - 10:35am PDT
035 Karpen Hall

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